The Truth... What is it?





YOUR BREAST CANCER RISK


If breast and other malignancies run strongly in your family, yours may be a Li Fraumeni Syndrome family with something like a 90% life time risk of cancer(s)! The table below otherwise speaks in various risk terms which you should carefully note. Your major interest involves what we professionals refer to as "lifetime risk", which, in the case of your breasts, is as follows: 11% of average women will get breast cancer if they live to be age 85; said another way...in a group of 100 women living to age 85, 11 will get breast cancer.

 your personal category

 risk statement

average lifetime risk...no known current breast problem

11% (1 in 9); see introductory paragraph, above

average lifetime risk ...no known current breast problem, but has previously had an induced abortion

(50% risk increase) 17% (1.5 in 9); see introductory paragraph, above; see web site [here]

 started her periods before age 14

 1.1-1.9 x the lifetime risk of those starting after age 14

 menopause, from any reason, before age 45

 half the lifetime risk...5.5 % (1 in 18)

 menopausal and still has dense bones (not osteoporotic)

 3x the lifetime risk of those with all else similar except that they show bone thinning

 risk for an average North American women getting breast cancer between her 40th and 41st birthday

 1 in 1000 (0.1 %) 12 month risk

risk for an average North American women getting breast cancer between her 20th and 40th birthday 

 5 in 1000 (0.49%) specific 20-year-interval risk

 risk for an average North American women getting breast cancer between her 35th and 55th birthday

 5 in 200 (2.53%) specific 20-year-interval risk

risk for an average North American women getting breast cancer between her 50th and 70th birthday 

 4.67 in 100 (4.67%) specific 20-year-interval risk

 risk for an average North American women getting breast cancer between her 65th and 85th birthday

 5.48 in 100 (5.48%) specific 20-year-interval risk

 if ONE blood kin of: your mother, a sister, or a daughter has breast cancer in one breast prior to menopause

 33-44% lifetime risk for you to get breast cancer (3-4 out of every 9 such women)

 if one blood kin of : your mother, a sister, or a daughter has breast cancer in both breasts prior to menopause; OR, if TWO or MORE of these kin have a breast cancer before menopause

 80-90% lifetime risk for you to get breast cancer
(8-9 out of every 10 such women)

 if you get regular breast exams and mammograms, sooner or later a suspicious area will show up which must be biopsied by one of the many procedure choices

 at least 20% chance of having a biopsy by age 85 (mostly age 40-85)

 if biopsy [all biopsy types] is because of a suspicious mammogram*

 up to 50% risk per each surgery that the biopsy will diagnose cancer

 if a LCNB type of biopsy is because of a suspicious mammogram*

 up to 24% risk per each surgery that the biopsy will diagnose cancer; but 30% of that 24% will be "non-invasive" cancer

 if biopsy is because someone (clinically) detects a suspicious lump

 up to 25% risk per each surgery that the biopsy will diagnose cancer

 if mammographically dense breasts

 3x the average risk at that age group

 cancer finding

 65% are found by mammograms
(when smallest and most likely completely curable)

 of invasive cancers detected by mammogram

 86% are later proven to have negative lymph nodes

 if our pathology report diagnosis is one of the benign, "non-proliferative" breast diseases

 no increased future risk identified

 if our pathology report diagnosis is benign but "proliferative" breast disease:
1. papilloma with fibrovascular core
2. moderate-to-florid hyperplasia

 an average person's lifetime risk jumps up by a factor of 1.5x to 2x

 if our pathology report diagnosis is benign
atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH)**

 diagnosis category serves as a
precancerous warning marker of a 4x to 5x increased lifetime risk of cancer developing at the same biopsy site or in some other site in either breast in an average person

 if our pathology report diagnosis is benign
atypical lobular hyperplasia (ALH)***

diagnosis category serves as a
precancerous warning marker of a 4x to 5x increased lifetime risk of cancer developing at the same biopsy site or in some other site in either breast in an average person 

 if our pathology report diagnosis is
"non-comedo" ductal carcinoma-in-situ (d-CIS)**

 the 9x to 11x increased lifetime future recurrence risk will be at the same site in the same breast

 if our pathology report diagnosis is
lobular carcinoma-in-situ (l-CIS)***

 diagnosis category serves as a
precancerous warning marker of a 7x to 12x increased lifetime risk of cancer developing at the same biopsy site or in some other site in either breast in an average person

 if our pathology report diagnosis is
"comedo" ductal carcinoma-in-situ (d-CIS)**

 the increased lifetime future recurrence risk is very high, greater than 12x, and will be at the same site in the same breast in an average person

 

*The age group with the highest number of false positive mammograms is the 40's. That is, a suspicious mammogram in a woman in her 40's is more likely to be benign.


**Even the world-class breast pathologist experts can't agree on the criteria to distinguish ADH from d-CIS.


***If thorough study of your biopsy specimen is negative for invasive lobular cancer....then, for follow-up purposes, cases with a diagnosis of ALH and lobular-CIS are lumped into a category called "non-invasive lobular neoplasia"... which diagnosis category serves as a precancerous warning marker of increased lifetime risk of cancer developing at the same biopsy site or in some other site in either breast.

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(posted 8/13/98; 1st update 20 July 1999; 2nd, 2 Dec. 2001; latest update 3 February 2007)